Efeitos econômicos da micro e minigeração distribuída fotovoltaica para o sistema distribuidor brasileiro

Abstract

The micro- and mini-distributed generation (MMGD) has significantly increased after the normative resolution No. 482/2012 in Brazil, the installed capacity surpassed 7 GW in 2021. In the international context, a similar event was observed, whose process generated a cross-subsidy for other consumers, in addition to other problems that affect the economic balance of concessionaires. To mitigate this issue, the Brazilian government published the new legal framework for the MMGD by law nº 14.300/2022. Thus, this study estimates the weight of this decision, through a methodology adapted from economic assessment models, based on information from the Brazilian regulatory system. In order to achieve it, this paper presents metrics to define the potential market MMGD, based on the consumption patterns of consumers. Then, through time series analysis, the MMGD demand curve is estimated under two scenarios up to 2030. Finally, the economic impact on tariff adjustments and revisions, and their effect on the electric power concessionaires are evaluated. In the distribution companies of the Enel Group alone, economic losses are estimated at R$ 6.7 billion by 2030, where 53% of this will be passed on to consumers’ tariffs. Thus, based on international experiences, it can be concluded that the best model is the adequate grid remuneration.