The role of lifestyle changes in low-emissions development strategies – The Case of Brazil

Abstract

This thesis provides insights on how to adequately embark income, consumption and lifestyles trends in energy-economy long-term projections for developing countries. It focuses on income convergence and consumption patterns, often overlooked or misrepresented in scenario exercises. Methodological issues address the reconciliation of data from household surveys, energy balances and national accounts. The appropriate representation of household preferences in a hybrid computable general equilibrium framework is also discussed, followed by an application to the Brazilian case. The research seeks to identify to what extent increased environmental awareness on household consumption can contribute to reducing greenhouse gases emissions up to 2050. Behaviour shifts regarding energy, transport, food and durable goods consumption, as well as waste generation, are simulated. They are contrasted with a reference scenario in which household consumption is defined by current trends and standards. The thesis presents and discusses the impacts of lifestyle changes on economic growth, competitiveness, employment, income distribution, households` purchasing power and consumption levels, among others. The structural shifts that stem from the transition are also worthy of note. This work provides policy recommendations for low-emissions development strategies aiming at articulating climate objectives with other social and economic priorities in Brazil.