Avaliação do impacto da alteração das condições de financiamento sobre a energia eólica no Brasil: evolução e perspectivas

Abstract

The expansion of the wind power source in the national electric matrix is important due to several factors, such as its clean, renewable nature, zero variable cost and energy mix diversification. By assuming characteristics of infrastructure assets, investment in the expansion of this source is capital intensive and has a long maturity, which requires an adequate source of financing. In Brazil, BNDES was responsible for financing more than 90% of the currently operating parks, using the Long-Term Interest Rate (TJLP), a subsidized interest rate. Recently, in order to attract private sources of financing, the Federal Government replaced the TJLP with the Long-Term Rate (TLP) in order to match BNDES’s cost of financing with the market cost. Therefore, the present study aims to evaluate the impact of changes in financing conditions on wind energy in Brazil, addressing the evolution and prospects of financing. To do this, an analysis of the financing modality (project finance) adopted for wind energy, as well as the possible sources of financing that may assume a leading role in the financing is carried out. In order to assess the impact of the changes, a financial modeling of a case study is carried out using financing cost scenarios. The results obtained indicate that the changes in financing conditions imply in an increase in the price of wind energy in Brazil. In addition, the study concludes that financing can evolve to a new pattern, characterized by the unionization of banks in the construction phase and issuance of infrastructure debêntures in the operation phase.