Análise conjuntural sobre ODS e efetividade das estruturas de financiamento públicas, privadas e mistas para a promoção do desenvolvimento sustentável aprimoradas - Relatório Final

Abstract

This report is the final product of the "National execution project BRA/11/022 - technical support to the preparatory process of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development - Rio+ 20 and development of its results, related to Outcome 7: Situational analysis on SDGs and effectiveness of improved public, private and mixed financing structures for the promotion of sustainable development". Its aim is to identify the current status and expectations up to 2030 of the financing of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with public, private and public-private resources, as well as to present proposals for improving the currently existing financing mechanisms and new sources of resources, in order to cover the gaps that may be estimated. The chapters of this report are organized by each SDG studied, and begin with the metrics and targets to be achieved in order to comply with the 2030 Agenda; the public, private and mixed resources spent on SDG-related initiatives up to 2017; and the estimates of financial resources needed, available and missing in order to achieve the targets by 2030. The transition to fully meeting the SDG targets was modeled through a gradual increase in spending to achieve them. It was assumed that the trajectory of necessary spending grows at a constant rate, until in 2030 the target is fully met. This corresponds to an exponential growth in the estimated resources needed during the 2018-2030 period, taking the spending verified in 2017 as the starting point. The last section of each chapter deals with proposing new mechanisms capable of covering the estimated funding gaps for meeting the SDGs. The results presented show that, even in the optimistic scenario, the resource gap is very large, indicating that there will not be the necessary resources to achieve the targets by 2030.1 This result is directly related to the hypothesis of fiscal austerity (freezing public spending by the federal government), as established by Constitutional Amendment 95/2016, which was projected for the other levels of public administration (state and municipal), as they are also suffering from the severe fiscal crisis and the dependence of these administrative spheres on funding from the federal government. The rules introduced prevent the growth of total government spending, in real terms, even if economic growth and, consequently, the government's collection capacity are restored. The rules introduced prevent the growth of total government spending, in real terms, even if economic growth and, consequently, the government's revenue capacity are restored. This differentiates Brazil from the experiences of other countries that have established relative spending limits (for example, as a percentage of GDP or the public deficit) and has sparked a major debate in the macroeconomic sphere: such a restriction on public spending could make it impossible to resume economic growth due to paralysis in public administration and a drop in aggregate demand, with the aggravating factor of substantially reducing public resources for social and environmental areas.