O método fuzzy para finanças governamentais: uma modelagem em lógica fuzzy para analisar e compreender o descontrole financeiro no comportamento do consumidor

Abstract

In recent years the lack of financial control has been pointed out as the main cause of default, this work developed a fuzzy logic model for the analysis and understanding of the behavior of the financial uncontrolled consumer with data from a survey for the general public and with the data of a questionnaire applied to experts. The Behavioral Economics literature was the main source to define the psychological, social and economic factors and their respective criteria used for the analysis of uncontrolled consumer behavior. A questionnaire was applied to ten experts in order to assign weight to the evaluated criteria. Initially, a statistical analysis of the criteria and factors under study was made for the research results aimed at the general public. The worked random sample consisted of 869 respondents, which was segmented into controlled extremes and uncontrolled extremes. As a result, for financial controls, only eight of the nineteen variables showed homogeneity, and for the uncontrolled ones, none of the variables showed homogeneity. In all the variables of financial controls that showed heterogeneity, the degree of heterogeneity was lower than the degree of heterogeneity of the uncontrolled. As this is a behavior analysis, this heterogeneity in the responses may indicate a discrepancy from reality. It is possible that these results reflect a neglect of uncertainty in the source of the data that is processed and propagate the uncertainty to the final result. This result confirmed the need for data to be processed from fuzzy logic processing